Population growth, Population explosion

Population
The problem of population growth

If you accept that humans are causing climate change and habitat loss then one of the biggest issues we face is population growth.

In 2007 the world population reached 6.6 billion. The world’s population in 1965, just 42 years previously, was half that: 3.3 billion. Even though the rate of increase has almost halved since growth rates reached their peak in 1963 it is still 1.14% (or more than 75,000,000 people) per year.

Many experts predict that the world’s population will crest at some time in the 21st century due to the ongoing decrease in birth rates. Projections are difficult because of the number of unknown variables such as famine, disease and war. Climate change catastrophes – such as sea level rises, droughts, flooding and other extreme weather events will also have an impact. However a ‘peak’ figure of over 9 billion people has been estimated.

It is arguable that the world can’t sustain 6.6 million people let alone 9 billion. But population numbers aren’t the only problem.

Changes in patterns of consumption may have an even greater effect than population increase. As populous countries such as China and India become more industrialised they will consume more energy and other resources. If China had the same per capita carbon emission as New Zealand they would produce over 11 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (compared to the 3.5 billion tonnes that they actually produce) which would increase the total world carbon dioxide emissions from 24.1 billion tonnes to over 31.6 billion tonnes (using 2002 figures published by the UN). And even if China caught up with New Zealand’s rate of emission they would still be far behind that of the US, Canada and Australia.

Patterns of consumption are driven by economic, political and cultural attitudes and behaviours.